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Canadian building permits on track for strong gain in 2007

Dawn Desjardins, Senior Economist, RBC ECONOMICS RESEARCH - DAILY ECONOMIC UPDATE
Published: Thursday, January 10, 2008

Building permits dropped 9.9% in November, a much steeper decline than the consensus forecast for a 2% dip. October's level was revised higher, having increased 7.3% rather than the 6.8% rise reported in the preliminary report. Residential permits fell 5% in November and non-residential permits fell 17.5%, largely reversing the 19.8% jump in October. Year-to-date, permits were 12.4% higher than in the same period a year ago.

Non-residential permits fell to their lowest level since April. The decline was due to slumping commercial and institutional permits in November, while industrial project permits jumped 47.9% in the month. The dip in the residential side occurred as falling permits for multi-units (down 15.2%) overshadowed the 1.8% rise in demand for single-unit permits.

The new housing price index for November was also released today. The index increased by 0.5%, faster than forecasts for a 0.3% increase and was up 6.1% on a year-over-year basis, stabilizing after a year-long trend of slower annual increases. The house-only portion of the report, which feeds into the CPI, rose 0.5% in November and was 5.8% higher than in November 2006.

Despite a weak November, building permit demand rose at a 7.3% annualized rate in October/November compared to the third-quarter average. In the 11 months to November, permits for residential projects ran 10.5% higher than the same period in 2006, while non-residential permit grew at a more robust 15.5%, pointing to investment in both residential and non-residential structures remaining firm into 2008. We expect housing starts will slow moderately in 2008 after exceeding 200,000 units for the sixth year running last year.

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